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Carmignac Investissement: the Fund Manager’s thought

  • Auteur(s)
    David Older
  • Publié
  • Longueur
    4 minute(s) de lecture

Carmignac Investissement had a strong third quarter, generating 7.2% of performance while the reference indicator gained 3.6%, resulting in relative outperformance of 3.7%. This brings the fund’s 2020 performance through the end of the third quarter to 15.8%, an outperformance of 18.7% versus the reference indicator.

The third quarter marked the ongoing recovery of the global economy from the COVID related low point in March. In the U.S., income levels remained largely consistent with pre-COVID levels due to fiscal stimulus and rebounding employment.

Consumer balance sheets are robust, with personal savings up $1.7 Trillion since February and consumer net worth at an all-time high.

U.S. Covid case counts stabilized in August and have only risen modestly as schools reopened and indoor dining resumed. While European COVID infection trends have been more concerning, it is important to note that the mortality rate in both the US and Europe has fallen as therapeutics have improved, making it unlikely that economies return to the state of lockdown experienced at the end of the first quarter. While we envision a steady improvement in global economic activity as fiscal and monetary policies remain supportive – the “check mark” shaped recovery mentioned in our last letter – it is clear that a widely distributed vaccine is required for activity to recover to pre-COVID levels. Our expectations are for one or more vaccines to be approved for limited use in late Q4 with wide U.S./European distribution in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2021.

In the interim we believe that fiscal support will remain in place to “plug the gap”. While U.S. fiscal policies have become highly political, we see the election as a clearing event that will ensure the fiscal support needed to reach post-vaccine normalization. The election is additionally highly relevant for forward tax rate, fiscal and regulatory policy and we envision many stock selection opportunities to present themselves once we have resolution.

With this backdrop in mind our portfolio construction is balanced between core positioning in secular growth stocks, which are not directly affected by the economic backdrop and benefit from the low interest regime, and some opportunistic exposure to companies levered to a normalization of behaviour post-vaccine, mainly in the travel sector.

  • Our focus within secular growth is mainly in the Technology, Healthcare, Consumer and Fintech sectors.

  • As noted in our last letter, these core positions proved extremely resilient to a global economic stoppage – consumers and enterprises simply did not stop adopting the powerful trends of e-commerce, digital payments, cloud-based software, and streamed entertainment.

Moreover, as the world adjusted to quarantine and “Work from Home/Stay at Home” dynamics, many of these adoption curves were vastly steepened, pulling forward penetration rates and profits into the near term. Our view is that these penetration rates will be largely maintained as global economies re-open and continue to higher levels over time. Of course, we are always sensitive to the risk/reward of our holdings, and we are very willing to take profits when we believe returns be less favourable.

On a sector basis, the Fund’s portfolio saw gains over the third quarter mainly from the Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Communications Services, and Healthcare sectors. Third quarter returns in Consumer Discretionary were again dominated by significant e-commerce positions in Amazon and JD.com, which were notable beneficiaries of the COVID crisis, as well as from a new position in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO. Technology returns benefited from strong software performance by Salesforce.com and Snowflake, a data analytics company that we had followed for years as a private company, which positioned us well to receive a significant allocation when it went public in September. Our performance in Communications Services was led by positions in Facebook, Nintendo and Twitter, and our Healthcare performance was once again led by Chinese positions: Zhifei Biologic and Wuxi Biologics. Sector losses were led by relative weakness in U.S. healthcare positions which underperformed due to election uncertainty.

As we finish 2020 and look towards 2021, we believe that we are likely to remain in a low growth environment as we recover from COVID headwinds, and thus that secular growth is preferable. We continue to search for investment ideas where we feel we can formulate a differentiated view from the consensus.

Carmignac

The geographic location where exposure remains elevated for the fund is China, where exposure rose again to 16%. Our investments in China remain focused on the same themes we have been expressing globally across the portfolio, namely Technology, Consumer Internet, and Healthcare. Two Chinese Electric Vehicle manufacturers, NIO and XiaoPeng, were added to the portfolio this quarter. We note that our Chinese exposure is focused on the domestic market, not companies dependent on U.S. technology or export markets.

Discover the Fund’s webpage:


Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010148981
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc +2.13 % +4.76 % -14.17 % +24.75 % +33.65 % +3.97 %
Indicateur de référence +11.09 % +8.89 % -4.85 % +28.93 % +6.65 % +27.54 %

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3 ans 5 ans 10 ans
Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc +20.11 % +9.27 % +8.27 %
Indicateur de référence +20.57 % +12.67 % +13.06 %

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La gestion de cette part/classe n’est pas indicielle. Les performances et valeurs passées ne préjugent pas des performances et valeurs futures. Les performances sont nettes de tout frais à l’exception des éventuels frais d’entrée et de sortie et sont obtenues après déduction des frais et taxes applicables à un client de détail moyen ayant la qualité de personne physique résident belge. Lorsque la devise diffère de la vôtre, un risque de change existe pouvant entraîner une diminution de la valeur. La devise de référence du fonds/compartiment est EUR.

Source : Carmignac au 31/12/2021

Reference indicator: MSCI ACWI (USD) (Reinvested net dividends). Annualized performance as of 30/09/2020. Performance of the A EUR acc share class. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager. © 2020 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.


Carmignac Investissement E EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010312660
Profil de risque et de rendement

Le profil peut varier de 1 à 7, une catégorie 1 correspondant à un risque plus faible et un rendement potentiellement plus faible et une catégorie 7 correspondant à un risque plus élevé et un rendement potentiellement plus élevé. Une catégorie 4-5-6-7 implique une forte à très forte volatilité, impliquant des fortes à très fortes variations de prix pouvant entraîner des pertes latentes à court terme.

Durée minimum de placement recommandée

Risque plus faible Risque plus élevé

Rendement potentiellement plus faible Rendement potentiellement plus élevé

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Risques Principaux

Risques non suffisamment pris en compte par l’indicateur :

RISQUE DE CONTREPARTIE : Risque de subir des pertes en cas de défaillance d’une contrepartie incapable de faire face à ses obligations contractuelles.

Risques inhérents :

RISQUE ACTION : Risque que les variations du prix des actions dont l'amplitude dépend de facteurs économiques externes, du volume de titres échangés et du niveau de capitalisation de la société impactent la performance.

RISQUE DE CHANGE : Risque lié à l’exposition, via les investissements directs ou l'utilisation d'instruments financiers à terme, à une devise autre que celle de valorisation de l'OPCVM.

RISQUE DE TAUX D’INTÉRÊT : Risque d'une baisse de la valeur liquidative en cas de mouvement des taux d'intérêt.

RISQUE DE GESTION DISCRÉTIONNAIRE : Impact direct sur la performance de l'OPCVM de l’anticipation de l’évolution des marchés financiers faite par le gestionnaire.

RISQUE DE PERTE EN CAPITAL : Cette part/classe ne bénéficie d’aucune garantie ou protection du capital investi. Vous risquez de ne pas récupérer l’entièreté de votre capital investi.

Pour plus d’informations sur les risques de la part/classe, vous devez vous référer au prospectus et plus particulièrement à la section « Profil de risque » ainsi qu’au document d’information clé pour l’investisseur.

* Le profil peut varier de 1 à 7, une catégorie 1 correspondant à un risque plus faible et un rendement potentiellement plus faible et une catégorie 7 correspondant à un risque plus élevé et un rendement potentiellement plus élevé. Une catégorie 4-5-6-7 implique une forte à très forte volatilité, impliquant des fortes à très fortes variations de prix pouvant entraîner des pertes latentes à court terme. La catégorie de risque n’est pas garantie et pourra évoluer dans le temps.